Western Conference
Be prepared
to hear a week’s worth of “James Harden returns to show the Thunder what they
are missing” stories. In truth, this
series is not likely to be close. While
Houston has improved offensively, this team is legitimately bad on the
defensive end. In the 3 regular season
games against each other, the Thunder averaged a whopping 121 points per game. You simply can’t be that bad on the defensive
end of the court and win a series against the Thunder. Westbrook will have no issue with Jeremy Lin
and Kevin Durant will, well, he’ll be Kevin Durant. Houston is bound to steal one on their home
court but don’t look for this series to go too long.
#2 San Antonio Spurs vs # 7 Los Angeles
Lakers
There’s a
lot to be concerned about if you are a Spurs fan. They are stumbling into the playoffs, coming
off of a 3-6 month of April. The injury
bug has not been kind to them, with it biting Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, at
the worst time. They are both expected
to play but their effectiveness is yet to be seen. Don’t forget, they also just signed an
“insurance policy” named Tracy McGrady.
Does he insure them in case Ginobili goes down or does he insure them a
first round exit?
The Lakers
are also playing better since the injury to Kobe Bryant. This isn’t to say they are better without him
but let’s not pretend this team isn’t loaded with All-Stars and future Hall of
Famers. The loss of Bryant allows the
other players to play more their style, which has paid off so far. The problem is they’ve only played at home
since the injury. Once they hit the
road, bench players seemingly don’t play as well and this is what will be the
Lakers’ downfall. The games will be
close, but San Antonio is a machine that seemingly steps up whenever you need
them to.
#3 Denver Nuggets vs #6 Golden State
Warriors
Of all the
first round match-ups, this is the one that can be looked at as a possible
upset. Golden State has been playing
well the last month of the season and, with sharpshooter Stephen Curry playing
well, the Warriors could pose problems in the first round. The only problem is they are matching up
against a Nuggets team that is arguably one of the hottest teams coming into
the playoffs. Over their last 26 games,
the Nuggets are 23-3. That is an
absolutely insane run. Add in that they
have not lost in Pepsi Center since January 18th, and you have a
team poised to make a run.
The question
with the Nuggets is health. Leading
scorer Danilo Gallinari is out due to a torn ACL. Leading rebounder Kenneth Faried is coming
off of a sprained ankle that could hinder his energy and effectiveness. Ty Lawson is working through a torn plantar
fascia, but has looked excellent since returning for the final three
games. Despite these woes, the Nuggets
have received boosts from the deepest bench in the league by getting extended
minutes for Wilson Chandler and rookie Evan Fournier.
The keys to
this series will be the pace and points in the paint. While both play at a high pace, Denver
averaged 20.3 fast break points and 56.5 points in the paint against Golden
State this season. If the Warriors can’t
slow down Denver, this one could get out of hand fast. If the Warriors get the 3 ball dropping;
we’ll have ourselves a series.
In a rematch
of last season’s classic, this one is destined for another seven game
series. There haven’t been many notable
changes in personnel, minus the scoring of Rudy Gay for Memphis. There are role players gone for both teams,
but the absence of Gay is likely to loom large at some point during the series.
The
Grizzlies are going to make this ugly and a grind. It’s what they do best. The pressure defense they play and slow down
offense will take the Clippers out of their comfort zone. However, the veteran presence of Chris Paul
and Chauncey Billups will come into play at some point. The front courts of both teams are so close
that I think the difference will be in the back court. While Conley Jr has been playing at a high
level, he just isn’t ready to take Memphis to the next level. The bench of LA is also deeper, which will
likely get them a game or two in LA.
Eastern Conference
#1 Miami Heat vs #8 Milwaukee Bucks
While Ellis
and Jennings can get hot for a game, they just don’t have the firepower to
challenge the defending champions. We
all “witnessed” the elite level LeBron James stepped up in the playoffs last
year and it is hard to imagine the Heat stumbling out of the gate. The only thing that can beat Miami in this
series is if they start to believe that this will be easy and look to the
second round before finishing business.
I simply don’t see that happening, though. This one will get ugly…and be done fast.
#2 New York Knicks vs #7 Boston Celtics
This is the
hardest pick to make in round one. I
said it a few weeks ago that I believed the Celtics were “resting” players in
an attempt to get to the seventh seed to face New York. I think they know how well they match up with
the Knicks. Additionally, the Celtics
know how to rattle the Knicks mentally.
This should be an absolute battle.
For the
Knicks, the health of Tyson Chandler is imperative to their defense. If he’s not at least eighty percent, they
could be in trouble. They also need to
rely on JR Smith, who has shown immense improvement this season, but is always
on the verge of shooting a team out of a game.
For the
Celtics, this series is huge for Jeff Green.
If he can continue to step up and play well, as he has over the last
couple of months, the Celtics become very dangerous. Avery Bradley is one of the top on ball
defenders in the league and could seriously disrupt the Knicks’ offense. Paul Pierce is a big game player and, even at
his age, can step up and put up massive numbers on any given night.
The home
court advantage is non-existent in this series.
Both teams can go on the road and win.
This series is going to come down to who executes in crunch time. There is not a player in the league that I
want taking more fourth quarter shots than Carmelo Anthony. He is a pure scorer that, no matter how he
has shot all game, can get buckets when needed most. He’s going to be the difference and the
reason the Knicks advance.
The Pacers
have looked inconsistent and bad the last couple of weeks. If anything will cure that, it’s a series
against the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta has
established themselves as the ultimate fringe team over the past few
seasons. They are good enough to be a
mid-seed in the playoffs and not do much once they are there. They stay just good enough to avoid the
lottery. Unfortunately that puts a ton
of pressure on their management to scout properly and bring in the right
talent. Given their lack of progress
over the past few seasons, they haven’t done enough.
This series
is Indiana’s to lose. It’s that
simple. They are flat out better at
every aspect of the game, with personnel that fits what they want to do. Frank Vogel has a young and talented team,
with the emerging Paul George leading the way.
This series will be heavy on home court advantage, but the Pacers will
find a way to put the Hawks away in Atlanta in game six. Then we’ll watch as Josh Smith leaves Atlanta
and they may just finally take a step…backwards.
If your
playoff hopes hinge on Joe Johnson and Deron Williams, I’m betting on the other
team. Johnson, in his first season with
Brooklyn, was part of the mediocrity that is the Atlanta Hawks. While he can occasionally shine, consistency
is not his strength. I’ve seen too many
games this year that he is just not present, and that does not bode well for
the Nets. Williams has playoff
experience, and is seemingly stepping his game up lately, could help push the
Nets in the right direction. However,
Chicago’s defense is spectacular and should be able to contain him.
Chicago,
despite Derrick Rose’s absence, should be able to squeak some wins out behind
the erratic Nate Robinson and underappreciated Luol Deng. The “X” factor in the series could come in
the paint. On paper, the match-up of
Joakim Noah/Carlos Boozer should beat Brook Lopez/Reggie Evans. The problem facing Chicago is the health of
Noah. If he is not able to bring his
usual energy and hustle, they could be in trouble as Reggie Evans is a nuisance. Evans could be the key to Brooklyn’s chances,
much the way he was against Memphis last season when he was a Clipper. This series will not be pretty, and that’s
exactly what Chicago thrives in.
There you
have it. The NBA playoffs will feature
the best of the best and storylines to captivate us all. Is it time to tip off yet?
Questions or comments? Feel free to e-mail me at: wahlscorner@gmail.com or
hit me up on Twitter: @wahly22
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